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Will US efforts to deescalate the Israel-Hamas conflict be effective? Experts weigh in_我的网站

一 |     Following Hamas' attack on Israel, the United States has sent a clear message of deterrence to prevent the conflict from spreading.To "anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation," President Joe Biden said during an address on Tuesday, "I have one word: Don't."The rhetoric has since been repeated by others in the administration, with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan telling reporters that they believe militia groups across the region "pose an urgent threat" and could "choose to try to exploit" the situation.On ABC News Live at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next."We have been sending clear warnings that doing so will result in a firm response and consequences from the United States," Sullivan said Tuesday.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday there's a "long list of actors in the region that are hostile to Israel," including Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group.The administration has also offered its full support to Israel, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin telling reporters in Brussels on Thursday that the U.S. is not placing conditions on the military aid it's providing to Israel. The U.S. additionally moved a carrier strike group into the eastern Mediterranean as part of its deterrence measures."We're sending a loud and clear message: The United States is ready to take action should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to escalate or widen this war," Kirby said Wednesday.How impactful those gestures will be on the raging war remains uncertain. The U.S. has limited leverage in the region, though does need to be careful to not further escalate the conflict, foreign policy experts said. The Biden administration is also likely keen to not get heavily involved, experts said."If Hezbollah or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or some other militant group from a neighboring country decides to get involved and attack Israel at this time, I don't think the United States is going to do anything more than it's currently doing -- which is offering Israel whatever it needs to defend itself," Ralph Carter, a professor of political science at Texas Christian University, told ABC News.Biden has historically been "cautious" in sending U.S. troops into battle, Carter said. "His experience in Washington over 40 years or more suggests that once you start something like that, you have no idea where it's going to end."Kirby said Thursday that there are no active plans or intentions to send U.S. troops to join a potential ground war in Israel and Gaza. The U.S. has deployed its largest carrier group, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region as an act of deterrence, officials said."The United States has moved military assets in the region, but I really do find it doubtful that the Biden administration really wants to get heavily involved militarily," Russell Lucas, a professor of international relations and global studies at Michigan State University, told ABC News.Israel's powerful military is also capable of defending itself against Hamas and other militant groups, experts noted, which may limit what it needs from the U.S. and act as another deterrent."The requirements on the U.S. defense industry I think are maybe not as heavy as they might be if we were talking about a weaker ally," Adria Lawrence, the Aronson Associate Professor of International Studies and Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, said during a public briefing on the conflict.In recent days there have been some limited military engagements on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, though Hezbollah may be deterred from getting drawn into a larger conflict with Israel, experts said."They will pay dearly for entering the conflict," Lucas said. "I think most actors [in the region] know that at the end of the day, the most military-capable actor is Israel, so there is a deterrence factor."Given Israel's known military prowess, the Biden administration's rhetoric may be stronger than necessary, Lucas said."I think it's more the Biden administration is aiming especially at the domestic audience -- trying to reassert that kind of bully pulpit of the commander-in-chief role, especially in the face of perhaps critiques from the Republican Party that Biden isn't strong enough," he said.At the same time, the U.S. does need to be careful about making any threats, experts said."Words matter and if President Biden's making a commitment and making kind of an implicit threat, he needs to remember the risks that are inherent in making a red line," Lucas said. "President Obama's red line in Syria -- do not use chemical weapons -- that was then not followed up was viewed as one of Obama's biggest foreign policy failures."Sarah Parkinson, the Aronson Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Studies at JHU, said during the university's briefing that these comments by U.S. officials "will likely embolden extremists on both sides" and prolong the conflict.Following Biden's remarks, Hezbollah said they will not back down and are "ready for confrontation," while the top leader of the Islamist armed organization Houthis in Yemen said that if the U.S. intervenes militarily in Gaza, they will send munitions and fighters to support Hamas.In efforts to deescalate the conflict, the U.S. could help mobilize other countries in the region, according to James Steinberg, the dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at JHU and former Deputy Secretary of State during the Obama administration."It's not that the United States itself is going to broker a resolution of this, but it can engage others, all of whom have a stake in not seeing the situation escalate," Steinberg said during the university's briefing, noting the discussions that have been taking place between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others.Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Thursday at a press conference in Israel that they are working with their partners in the region to ensure "that there will not be a second front or a third front."Steinberg said a wider war "can't be ruled out," and the effectiveness of the U.S.' response to deescalate is "uncertain" -- likening it to its support of Israel in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War."Here as then, the United States has limited impact and limited leverage," he said. "Perhaps even less so today than it did in 1973."。

二 |     BARCELONA, Spain -- Barcelona accountant Oriol Calvo ran afoul of the law when he was arrested in 2019 during a mass protest by supporters of Catalonia's independence from Spain that turned violent. A court found him guilty of public disorder and of aggressive behavior toward a police officer — offenses he denies. The 25-year-old is among several thousand ordinary citizens who faced legal trouble for their often tiny part in Catalonia’s illegal secession bid that brought Spain to the brink of rupture six years ago.Now Calvo hopes his conviction and those of many others will be wiped clean if Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, follows through and issues a sweeping amnesty for the separatists in exchange for their movement's political parties helping him form a new government in Madrid.Calvo's sentence of 18 months was suspended since it was his first offense, but it is still a stain on his record and has affected his willingness to participate in politics. He has stopped going to rallies for independence for fears that it could complicate his legal situation. He also felt betrayed.“I became very bitter,” Calvo said. “I felt betrayed by the justice system, but also I thought about all the efforts that the movement had made in the fight to achieve independence that had gotten us nowhere.”Sánchez, who has granted pardons to several leaders of the movement in the past, says that the amnesty will be positive for Spain because it will further reduce tensions inside Catalonia. Yet no one doubts that he is doing it only out of political necessity given how divisive the Catalan independence movement is both inside Catalonia and the rest of Spain.A national election in July left no party close to an absolute majority and with Sánchez in need of the support of several smaller parties to stay in power. Those include two pro-secession Catalan parties who led the unsuccessful 2017 breakaway attempt and who now find themselves holding the key votes in Parliament that Sánchez requires. Given the chance to play kingmaker, the two separatist parties are using their leverage. They have made an amnesty law as a prerequisite for supporting Sánchez.The clock is already ticking. Sánchez has until Nov. 27 to form a government, otherwise new elections will be triggered for January.Sánchez and his center-left Socialist party have tried to keep as quiet as possible on the amnesty question, but the leader has acknowledged that talks are on-going with the Catalan parties, including one led by the fugitive former regional leader of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, who fled Spain for Belgium after his dream to carve out a new state in northeast Spain collapsed.Spain’s courts are still trying to have Puigdemont extradited. Given that Puigdemont is considered an enemy of the state for many Spaniards, any deal that could benefit him is politically toxic.Tens of thousands of people rallied in downtown Barcelona on Oct. 8 against a possible amnesty in a sign of the danger that Sánchez runs.An amnesty "would be shameful because Spain can’t be governed by people who want to split from the country,” said 23-year-old Pablo Seco, an aeronautical engineer who attended the rally.For Montserrat Nebrera, professor of constitutional law at the International University of Catalonia, the negotiations between Sánchez and the separatist leaders are a “hall of mirrors” wherein both sides try to appear that they have the upper hand, when in reality they need one another.“Pedro Sánchez needs the amnesty law to pass so he can get the four votes he is lacking,” Nebrera told the AP. “The secessionists, however, also need to show their people that they are not only interested in saving the necks of their leaders ... but also of the people who disobeyed authorities or damaged public property and whose punishments, while not huge, have greatly complicated their lives.”Spain’s conservative party, which lost a bid to form a government last month, is already bashing Sánchez for what it describes as selling Spain out to stay in power. Former Socialist prime minister Felipe González has also said that the amnesty is not merited.Spain granted a sweeping amnesty during its transition back to democracy following the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975. But legal experts are divided over the constitutionality of an amnesty for the Catalan separatists.The pro-independence Catalan organization Omnium Cultural says that an amnesty should benefit some 4,400 more people, mostly minor officials and ordinary citizens who either helped to organize an illegal 2017 referendum or participated, like Calvo, in protests that turned ugly.But Omnium and the two Catalan separatist parties say they want much more than just a clean slate for people in trouble with the law: they want the terms of the amnesty to establish a legal pretext for Catalonia eventually holding a binding, authorized referendum on independence.“For us, the amnesty is not the solution to the conflict, it is the starting point from which the conflict can begin to be resolved,” said Xavier Antich, president of Omnium Cultural.That going-for-broke position, however, may run the risk of wrecking the whole operation, as well as leaving people like Calvo in the lurch.“They have already tried to have a referendum authorized and it has not worked,” Calvo said. “So I believe that trying to force something that we know isn’t going to happen is useless and could derail the amnesty talks.”___Videojournalist Hernán Muñoz contributed to this report.。

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